January 23, 2019

Paris Agreement, 12 December 2015



Implementation Under Paris

  • Entered into force, 4 Nov. 2016 (4 Nov. 2020 is the earliest date a country can withdraw)
  • Legally binding elements are largely procedural
  • Nationally Determined Contributions (Submitted every 5 years, 2020, 2025, 2030)
  • Global stocktaking beginning in 2023 (continuing every 5 years). How is implementation going?
  • 2017 GHG emissions were around 49-53 GtCO2e
  • Just to have a good chance to meet , global emissions have to peak by 2020

Global Warming of 1.5°, Oct. 2018

Key Takeaways

  • Earth’s carbon budget is quickly shrinking (at current levels we have about 10 years)
  • When compared to a 2° scenario levels of risk are elevated for key areas of concern
  • Speedy action on a large scale for transforming energy supply is needed
  • Policy makers need to be mindful of synergies and trade-offs as they relate to Sustainable Development Goals
  • Any effort to limit temperatures to 1.5° will require carbon removals
  • Extent of carbon removals depends on various assumptions surrounding policy, emissions trends, and the degree to which overshoot will be accommodated.

Pathways

Emissions Gap

Problems with relying on AFOLU & BECCS

  • AFOLU (Agriculture, Forestry & Other Land Use)
  • BECCS (Bioenergy WITH Carbon Capture & Storage)
  • Competing land use demands
  • Significant land requirements for BECCS
  • Are supply chain emissions associated with BECCS taken into account?
  • Could higher levels of demand for biomass impact indirect emissions from product displacement (i.e. demand for concrete or metals)
  • Concerns about safe storage of CO2
  • Potential negative impacts on biodiversity
  • Water stress as irrigation demands increase
  • Barrier to low-carbon energy transition